• Global rainfall erosivity projections for 2050 and 2070

    Panagos, P.a, Borrelli, P.b, Matthews, F.a, Liakos, L.a, Bezak, N.c, Diodato, N.d, Ballabio, C.a, 2022. Global rainfall erosivity projections for 2050 and 2070. Journal of Hydrology 610, 127865. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2022.127865

    aEuropean Commission, Joint Research Centre (JRC), Ispra, Italy
    bDepartment of Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Pavia, 27100 Pavia, Italy
    cUniversity of Ljubljana, Faculty of Civil and Geodetic Engineering, Ljubljana, Slovenia
    dMet European Research Observatory – International Affiliates Program of the University Corporation for Atmospheric Research, Benevento, Italy

    The erosive force of rainfall (rainfall erosivity) is a major driver of soil, nutrient losses worldwide and an important input for soil erosion assessments models. Here, we present a comprehensive set of future erosivity projections at a 30 arc-second (∼1 km2) spatial scale using 19 downscaled General Circulation Models (GCMs) simulating three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) for the periods 2041–2060 and 2061–2080. The future rainfall erosivity projections were obtained based on a Gaussian Process Regression (GPR) approach relating rainfall depth to rainfall erosivity through a series of (bio)climatic covariates. Compared to the 2010 Global Rainfall erosivity baseline, we estimate a potential average increase in global rainfall erosivity between 26.2 and 28.8% for 2050 and 27–34.3% for 2070. Therefore, climate change and the consequential increase in rainfall erosivity is the main driver of the projected + 30–66% increase in soil erosion rates by 2070.

    Our results were successfully compared with 20 regional studies addressing the rainfall erosivity projections. We release the whole dataset of future rainfall erosivity projections composed of 102 simulation scenarios, with the aim to support further research activities on soil erosion, soil conservation and climate change communities. We expect these datasets to address the needs of both the Earth system modeling community and policy makers. In addition, we introduce a modeling approach to estimate future erosivity and make further assessments at global and continental scales.

  • Phosphorus plant removal from European agricultural land

    Total phosphorus removal per country and region

    Panagos, Panosa, Anna Muntwylera, Leonidas Liakosa, Pasquale Borrellib, Irene Biavettia, Mariia Bogonosc, and Emanuele Lugatoa. 2022. “Phosphorus Plant Removal from European Agricultural Land.” Journal of Consumer Protection and Food Safety, February. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00003-022-01363-3.

    a European Commission, Joint Research Centre (JRC), Ispra, Italy
    b Dipartimento di Scienze della Terra e dell’Ambiente, Università degli Studi di Pavia, Pavia, Italy
    c European Commission, Joint Research Centre (JRC), Seville, Spain

    Phosphorus (P) is an important nutrient for all plant growth and it has become a critical and often imbalanced element in modern agriculture. A proper crop fertilization is crucial for production, farmer profits, and also for ensuring sustainable agriculture. The European Commission has published the Farm to Fork (F2F) Strategy in May 2020, in which the reduction of the use of fertilizers by at least 20% is among one of the main objectives. Therefore, it is important to look for the optimal use of P in order to reduce its pollution effects but also ensure future agricultural production and food security. It is essential to estimate the P budget with the best available data at the highest possible spatial resolution. In this study, we focused on estimating the P removal from soils by crop harvest and removal of crop residues. Specifically, we attempted to estimate the P removal by taking into account the production area and productivity rates of 37 crops for 220 regions in the European Union (EU) and the UK. To estimate the P removal by crops, we included the P concentrations in plant tissues (%), the crop humidity rates, the crop residues production, and the removal rates of the crop residues. The total P removal was about 2.55 million tonnes (Mt) (± 0.23 Mt), with crop harvesting having the larger contribution (ca. 94%) compared to the crop residues removal. A Monte-Carlo analysis estimated a ± 9% uncertainty. In addition, we performed a projection of P removal from agricultural fields in 2030. By providing this picture, we aim to improve the current P balances in the EU and explore the feasibility of F2F objectives.

    Total phosphorus removal per country and region
    Total phosphorus removal per country and region. Green bars aggregate P crop removal per country and brown ones are the aggregated P removal with residues
Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 3.0 Unported
This work by Leonidas Liakos is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 3.0 Unported.